Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.585457 3.127127 3.736134 4.468846 5.323573 6.286136 7.449050
2025-04-13 1.771791 2.439158 3.273826 4.383238 5.806478 7.557218 9.858055
2025-04-20 1.391289 2.135775 3.152672 4.617224 6.641559 9.305820 13.035022
2025-04-27 1.112831 1.882327 3.017846 4.769749 7.347714 10.934721 16.218267
2025-05-04 0.933999 1.722159 2.966800 5.004174 8.165024 12.771180 19.845577
2025-05-11 0.749063 1.503371 2.775535 4.978860 8.570969 14.034186 22.751557
2025-05-18 0.582147 1.272077 2.513948 4.786236 8.671066 14.823144 24.996541
2025-05-25 0.448758 1.067453 2.254835 4.546103 8.645062 15.388120 26.916197
2025-06-01 0.371144 0.953070 2.135503 4.526158 8.973962 16.533016 29.825742
2025-06-08 0.313739 0.866664 2.052250 4.555423 9.383235 17.834412 33.078434
2025-06-15 0.262826 0.781305 1.954050 4.537553 9.697144 18.989215 36.160720
2025-06-22 0.206359 0.665978 1.768844 4.313558 9.590284 19.385622 37.957196
2025-06-29 0.173006 0.602318 1.689399 4.304244 9.910367 20.598280 41.320902
2025-07-06 0.143709 0.540861 1.602905 4.266176 10.167957 21.717836 44.605930
2025-07-13 0.132503 0.530143 1.639483 4.511675 11.038234 24.065330 50.306699
2025-07-20 0.118606 0.506520 1.638153 4.667443 11.732236 26.122721 55.599897
2025-07-27 0.109213 0.495074 1.667140 4.899852 12.615231 28.615087 61.874696
2025-08-03 0.092420 0.451352 1.597388 4.875839 12.922401 29.972822 66.046330
2025-08-10 0.073810 0.392934 1.471587 4.686990 12.829313 30.500058 68.619087
2025-08-17 0.057614 0.336431 1.337232 4.451311 12.595174 30.706580 70.554917
2025-08-24 0.048824 0.307894 1.284765 4.431764 12.876977 32.027469 74.825279
2025-08-31 0.042228 0.286500 1.251135 4.460511 13.280319 33.639423 79.790200
2025-09-07 0.035860 0.262967 1.204358 4.442970 13.563701 35.004552 84.317268